SETTLED.

Prediction-market claims, checked against resolution data.

The audit desk for prediction-market hype.

Social media is full of prediction-market success stories: viral strategy posts, screenshot millionaires, copytrade funnels. Almost none of them survive contact with the actual numbers. We run an independent, automated trading operation on these markets — and we publish the homework: every claim re-derived from resolution data (what actually settled, at prices you could actually have traded), never from a dashboard screenshot.

Claim checks

A viral strategy post goes in; a verdict comes out. We re-derive the math, run the luck test, and check who profits from your belief.

Whale files

Big wallets, audited from their full resolved on-chain record — graded against the exact prices they paid, not their leaderboard rank.

The lab

Every strategy we have tried ourselves — with real probes, real order books, and real money — including all the ones that failed. 28 experiments on file →

The ledger

Claim checks and whale files, newest first. 5 entries on file.

Whale file Lucky, so far Whale file: Threadbare-Skunk — $1,073,422 up across 42 large resolved bets $4,853,975 staked at an average entry of 57¢. Win rate 61.9% against a price-implied 56.5%. The skill test says: lucky so far. source: on-chain record42 resolved large bets Whale file Bleeding Whale file: Dishonest-Bloom — $3,507,478 down across 87 large resolved bets $6,393,161 staked at an average entry of 63¢. Win rate 44.8% against a price-implied 63.0%. The skill test says: bleeding. source: on-chain record87 resolved large bets Claim check Unproven The "steel nerves" weather trader: a real premium, a 2-sigma record, and a copytrade button A viral Reddit post says one trader made $24,728 buying near-certain weather markets. The strategy class exists. This evidence for it doesn't survive arithmetic. source: r/PredictionsMarkets1.09% return on turnover Claim check Debunked The "4-minute leader" crypto-candle strategy, tested at real prices: both lanes lose A widely-shared article claims the leader of a 5-minute crypto candle wins 70% when order flow agrees — and should be faded when it doesn't. We ran both rules live against executable order books for weeks. The fade lost 25%. source: Medium (benjamincup)3,873 live-priced entries settled Claim check Debunked We audited the "Top 5 weather market legends." The lottery-ticket story is false for every one of them A viral Medium listicle says the weather-market winners got rich buying 0.2–0.6¢ lottery buckets. We pulled the actual trade feeds of the profiled wallets. The real records: +0.2% to +7.4% grinding — and one of the five is currently losing. source: Medium (moonsat)4 of 5 profiled wallets audited