Whale file: Threadbare-Skunk — $1,073,422 up across 42 large resolved bets
$4,853,975 staked at an average entry of 57¢. Win rate 61.9% against a price-implied 56.5%. The skill test says: lucky so far.
The claimLarge-bet wallet Threadbare-Skunk (0xc2e7…be51) — profiled from its full resolved record, not a screenshot. — on-chain record
The short version
This wallet placed 42 large resolved BUYs ($4,853,975 total) at an average entry of 57¢, between 2026-01-16 and 2026-07-10. Scored honestly — each bet at the price it actually paid — the record is $1,073,422 (+22.1% on stake).
The skill test: at these entry prices the market itself predicted 56.5% winners; the wallet delivered 61.9%. That difference is +0.7 standard deviations — inside the band luck can explain on this sample.
The style is unmistakable once you see the swings: enormous single-match soccer moneylines at near-coin-flip prices, placed in bursts. Five of the six biggest positions are January club-football matches at 35–62¢, topped by $1.17M on Juventus at 60¢ — a single bet that returned $777,577 and accounts for 72% of the wallet's lifetime profit. Remove that one match and the record drops to roughly +8% on stake, with the z-score falling toward zero.
The band table makes the same point structurally: the wallet's largest exposure — $2.04M, 42% of everything it ever staked — sits in the 60–70¢ band, where three wins and three losses netted +$2,174, i.e., exactly nothing. The actual profit lives in a 15-bet 50–60¢ band and two 30¢-range underdog wins. This is a huge-bankroll sports bettor whose P&L is a handful of January football results; the concentration is precisely why the skill test won't canonize a million-dollar profit. Forty-two independent coin-flip-sized events cannot certify an edge this lumpy — and neither can we. If the wallet keeps winning at this size, the z-score will say so soon enough; the file stays open.
Technical appendix
Exhibit A Record by entry-price band
Honest net by 10¢ price band. Where a wallet's edge lives (or leaks) is usually visible here.
| Band | Bets | WR | Staked | Net |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20–30¢ | 1 | 0% | $57,181 | −$57,181 |
| 30–40¢ | 2 | 100% | $175,842 | $306,654 |
| 40–50¢ | 9 | 56% | $317,954 | $79,816 |
| 50–60¢ | 15 | 53% | $1,458,199 | $520,416 |
| 60–70¢ | 6 | 33% | $2,042,951 | $2,174 |
| 70–80¢ | 6 | 100% | $532,598 | $165,793 |
| 80–90¢ | 3 | 100% | $269,250 | $55,750 |
Exhibit B Largest resolved swings
| Market | Entry | Stake | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will Juventus FC win on 2026-01-21? | 60¢ | $1,166,366 | $777,577 |
| Will AS Monaco FC win on 2026-01-16? | 61¢ | $502,524 | −$502,524 |
| Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-17? | 50¢ | $400,000 | $400,000 |
| Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-01-18? | 62¢ | $279,715 | −$279,715 |
| Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-18? | 35¢ | $107,304 | $199,453 |
| Spread: Hornets (-3.5) | 56¢ | $222,598 | $174,898 |
Exhibit C Method note
BUY-side resolved bets only, scored as stake × (1−p)/p on a win and −stake on a loss at the recorded entry price p. Platform P&L columns and leaderboard figures are not used. The z-score compares actual wins to the price-implied expectation Σp with variance Σp(1−p) — i.e., the wallet is graded against the exact prices it chose to pay. Large-bet feeds under-sample small trades, so this is the wallet's large-bet record, not necessarily its whole book.
Source under review: https://polymarket.com/profile/0xc2e7800b5af46e6093872b177b7a5e7f0563be51