Fading fresh listings
A 27,000-listing calibration study found brand-new markets systematically mispriced by band: mid-priced listings too rich, favorites too cheap. The executable follow-up is one settlement from its first verdict — currently +53.6%.
The hypothesisA market's first posted price is one person's guess, not a crowd's. If listing prices are systematically biased — too confident in the middle, too timid on favorites — then trading against the bias in a listing's first minutes, before the crowd arrives, is an edge with a built-in exit as prices converge.
The test
First the measurement: every new listing's initial price archived since January (~27k with resolutions) against what actually happened. The bias is real and band-shaped: non-crypto listings priced 30–70¢ resolve YES several points less often than their listing price implies (the worst decile band: −4.9¢), while 80–97¢ listings are slightly cheap; crypto listings are efficient from the first print and excluded. The live probe then trades the bias where it must actually be harvested: at the live ask within 45 minutes of listing, with strict spread and premium gates — fresh books are thin, and the measured edge is only a few cents, so overpaying the gate would eat it. Two lanes (fade the middle, back the favorites), settled at resolution net of fees.
The result
In progress, and unusually promising: the FADE lane sits at +53.6% ROI over 29 settled entries — one settlement short of its 30-entry verdict gate. All profit is concentrated in non-sports categories, exactly where the calibration said it should be; the favorites lane accrues more slowly. Honest caveat, pre-registered: the calibration measured indicative prices, so only this executable version counts, and 30 settlements is a verdict gate, not a proof — a positive verdict graduates the lane to a larger confirmation sample, not to a victory lap.
Conclusion
Open — the closest thing to a confirmed new edge in the current cohort. Mechanistically it makes sense: listing prices are set by one market creator under no adversarial pressure, the crowd takes hours to arrive, and the long tail's creators repeat the same biases. If the verdict lands positive, the next question is capacity — thin fresh books may only ever fit small size, which would make this a real but boutique edge. We'll publish the gate result either way.