The dormant wallet that wakes up
A wallet that traded, went silent for months, then returns with one large concentrated bet — the classic signature of someone who came back for a known event. Running at +64% through 28 settlements, two short of its gate.
The hypothesisThe fresh-wallet "insider" signal failed because it can't separate informed money from loud money. Add a costly-to-fake filter: a wallet with real history that went dormant for months and returns with one large, focused bet. Random gamblers don't hibernate; people who learn something specific do.
The test
Each large bet in the whale feed triggers a dormancy measurement via the bettor's full public activity history — how long since this wallet last did anything, excluding the current burst? Wake-ups from ≥90 days of silence with a sanely-priced book become would-enter signals, logged at the live executable ask and settled at resolution. Paper only, by policy: its parent signal burned five thousand paper copies proving that plausible insider signatures usually aren't.
The result
Through 28 settled signals: +64.3% ROI at the logged asks (16 wins) — with every caveat a 28-sample deserves, and now with a fresh cautionary tale from the lab next door: the listing-fade lane sat at +53.6% at 29 settlements and finished at −15.2% by 289. The base rate here is low (genuine long-dormancy wake-ups with large bets are rare), which is both why accrual is slow and why the signal might actually work: the filter is expensive to satisfy by accident. Two settlements remain to the pre-registered 30-signal gate — and the gate is the start of a confirmation sample, not the end of the question.
Conclusion
Open, and behaving like the thesis predicts so far. If the gate lands positive, this becomes the best surviving member of the "follow informed money" family — the one where the tell is time rather than size. The discipline holds regardless: signals this rare tempt you to trust them early, and 28 good settlements is precisely the sample at which most published strategies declare victory. We wait for the gate.